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|Subject: Re: High grain prices to trigger high meat price||Date: 9/28/2008 11:12 AM|
|Author: susan400||Number: 100 of 113|
Brett, VERY INTERESTING topic.
I have not fully dug in but have the same thesis
in my head.
Caveats, 1) when? Some were sure skyhigh grains would have
put so mucn hog producers out of bis, we would have had a shortage this summer, but NONE.
H&P came out fri, all H&P at 102% ofa yr ago.
2) Apr LH are at 77, July LH 86 VS Dec 66$
is the shortfall alraedy discounted?
Short term I think FC V and X went to deep discounts to cash index, I think fearful of the economy meltdown risk.
Next I think corn is in a major bear even if it bounces and
FC being a input to LC with corn, could trun FC into a long term bull mkt.
Meats are not efficient and absurd fears create opportunity.
Lets keep this discussion going
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