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| Subject: Understanding Bear Markets | Date: 9/29/2008 9:44 PM | |
| Author: TMFDoug | Number: 3 of 12 | |
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Greetings! I just spotted this new discussion forum and thought participants might be interested in my Bear Market Photo Album: http://dshort.com/charts/bear-markets.html?07-08-SP500-bear The photo album offers a comparison of the nine bear markets since 1950, using the S&P 500 as the poster child for market performance. In addition, here's a scatter diagram that shows how today's bear market compares with the other eight since 1950: http://dshort.com/charts/bear-markets.html?bear-scatter-char... And here's a chart that compares today's bear market with the similar pattern in 1973-1974 -- at least so far: http://dshort.com/charts/bear-markets.html?two-bears-73-74-0... My rationale for sharing these charts is that an intelligent bear market strategy needs a basic understanding of how long they last and the historic range of declines. I generally update these charts each evening after the market closes. On a personal note, I'm a retired Fool and board stroller for the Motley Fool Rule Your Retirement subscription service. I've been a student of bear markets since the nasty beast of 1973-1974 -- the first of my adult life. In the summer of 1973 I was promoted to assistant professor of English, I became a new father, and my wife and I bought our first home. A couple months later, the Arab Oil Embargo triggered gasoline shortages, rationing and lines at the pump, and a tripling of gas prices. I like bull markets much better! Cheers, Doug |
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