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Investment Analysis Clubs / Macro Economic Trends and Risks
|Subject: Re: Will the Bailout Plan Work?||Date: 10/5/2008 12:56 PM|
|Author: washcomp||Number: 257749 of 470319|
I believe that from Bernenke and Paulson's perspective, the CDS isssue IS the big deal. The reason their original 3 page pplan was so nebulous was so they could stick their fingers in the dike whenever ANYTHING (sub-prime, student loan, car loan, credit card debt, corporate debt - anything) looked like it was going to default. This would give them breathing room to address the CDS thing without having to fight with the media over each decision (which out of systemic context might look out of place).
There are a lot of moving parts to this faltering economy and these guys must feel like their juggling a torch, a baby, a chainsaw and a bowling ball.
Another point: Let's take Wendy's example of my taking out a life insurance policy on my neighbor without informing them. It would be to my advantage to poison their drinking water to force a "credit event" (think "manipulative" short selling or false news reports). I've only bet $100/10,000 - that's pretty exciting leverage if I've placed enough black chips.
The restriction on short selling evaporates this week. I feel that despite the arguements that short selling makes for an efficient market, at this point they add complications which don't provide enough incremental benefit to the economy to be worthwhile permiting (until things reach a steady state again).
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