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Investment Analysis Clubs / Macro Economic Trends and Risks
|Subject: Re: Will the Bailout Plan Work?||Date: 10/5/2008 1:25 PM|
|Author: Iaato||Number: 257759 of 447261|
Because we're going to have to reboot the political system at the same time as the economic system, I'd say 15-20 years, Meg. The political system will cycle into the blue screen of death after the economy freezes up.
Stages of Collapse
Stage 1: Financial collapse. Faith in "business as usual" is lost. The future is no longer assumed resemble the past in any way that allows risk to be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent; savings are wiped out, and access to capital is lost.
Stage 2: Commercial collapse. Faith that "the market shall provide" is lost. Money is devalued and/or becomes scarce, commodities are hoarded, import and retail chains break down, and widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.
Stage 3: Political collapse. Faith that "the government will take care of you" is lost. As official attempts to mitigate widespread loss of access to commercial sources of survival necessities fail to make a difference, the political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.
Stage 4: Social collapse. Faith that "your people will take care of you" is lost, as local social institutions, be they charities or other groups that rush in to fill the power vacuum run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.
Stage 5: Cultural collapse....
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