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International Investing / India (BSE)


Subject:  waiting Date:  1/3/2009  5:39 PM
Author:  grier22 Number:  224 of 244

Piece in Barron's today emphasizing India's dependence (much greater than most emerging markets) on foreign investment, which has pulled out. Predictions are impossible, but I'd guess emerging generally will be a good place to be when world markets find their lows. Based on GMO's research on bubbles, there's likely to be a new low for US, world indexes in 2009.

A new bull market, Morgan Stanley's Desai argues, is at least 15 months away. "Even if we assume that the market has hit its bottom, previous bear markets show that the market almost always tests the previous low before a new bull market gets underway," he says. "This process of retesting took between 15 and 24 months in the previous three bear markets."

He says the Sensex will probably end 2009 at 8,559, down 11% from now -- and it could fall as much as 34%. In a bullish scenario, Morgan Stanley says, the market could climb about 30%.
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