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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/the-economists-reinhart-and-rogoff-had-a-timely-27322499.aspx

Subject:  Re: waiting Date:  1/5/2009  4:13 PM
Author:  grier22 Number:  225 of 244

The economists Reinhart and Rogoff had a timely and interesting historical study on financial busts a year ago. Here's their more recent paper highlighting the aftermath of systemic banking busts. There's a summary in the 'frontline thoughts' letter below, with graphs for duration and depth of the downturn. This work makes the idea of a lasting low in 2009 seem a little optimistic.


http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/pdf/mwo010209.pdf


And here's the paper itself, 11 pages and relatively clear


http://ws1.ad.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/rogoff/files/Aft.......
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