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|Subject: Re: OT: Man in the White Suit||Date: 2/10/2009 9:53 PM|
|Author: theHedgehog||Number: 25934 of 36039|
Until somebody can say what the new jobs are going to be with believable numbers, not wishful thinking, economic "laws," or hype, I won't believe in them.
You won't need to believe them. Each improvement in technology commoditizes someone's position. For example: During the 70s through the 90s a career in airline reservations systems programming was extremely lucrative because it was all in assembly language. Now there are macros, higher level languages and databases that weren't available back then, and it's mostly just another boring programming job in a fabric box. Each new industrial robot design destroys hundreds (thousands?) of assembly line jobs.
Those who say there will always be better jobs for the well educated are perhaps misquoting Moore's Law where he says computing power will double every 18 months. Sure, jobs acted that way until the 90s, but it's no longer true. Moore himself is even predicting the demise of his own law in the hardware sector.
OTOH, it is true for the countries (India, etc) that we're off-shoring to. Their workers' way of life improves at the cost of losses to ours. It's been said that the natural state of mankind is poverty. Given the downward pressure on salaries as a result of the proliferation of technology, I can believe it. But don't get me started on population curves, energy, and pollution. :)
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