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|Subject: Re: OT: Man in the White Suit||Date: 2/15/2009 11:11 AM|
|Author: markr33||Number: 25976 of 35803|
<<Nobody knows. Nobody ever knows. This is a complaint that could be made during any recession, depression, or moment of economic uncertainty during the past 200 years. And after a period of self-flagellation (and other necessary economic retrenchment) we pick ourselves up and go forward. When? Where? Really, it's a total mystery. But it's not going to stop forever because you don't need to upgrade your computer as often.>>
This is why I call this faith-based economics.
Perhaps all economics is faith based. The bank that loans money to augment capital is doing so on faith. The large groups borrowing from the banks (and other agencies) are doing so on faith that they remain stable. And every single transaction between willing buyers and sellers have some element of faith (sure there is adequate due diligence, but there is no way to be so diligent that you are absolutely sure nothing can go wrong) that it is a fair deal.
I have no doubt there will be innovation, but that doesn't mean it will lead to new and better jobs. History is complex on this: job losses from increased productivity have been mitigated by immigration, migration, high percentages of public employees, shorter work week, and of course wars.
There may be doubt if those new jobs will be better, but there is no doubt that they will be different. And "better" is in the eye of the beholder - is sitting in a small cubicle better than working with ones muscles outdoors? Sure it is in some respects, but it is worse in other respects.
We have seen a major new innovation over the last 25 years, and we can easily see how it has enabled increased productivity and will continue to do so. But job growth in this country after the dot.com recession (I don't take 9-11 as a real factor, just a brief psychological blow)
The actual acts of 9/11/01 were "just a brief psychological blow", however the resultant actions were huge, both socially and economically. Try to remember that we spent about as much, or more, as the current "huge" stimulus package, on the wars that resulted from that "brief psychological blow". If the current stimulus package is to create 3.5 million jobs, wouldn't roughly that same amount of capital potentially have done the same?
, despite record profits and officially high growth, was way below par and almost entirely fueled by borrowing and