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Stocks H / Halozyme Therapeutics


Subject:  Quite before the storm Date:  8/7/2009  4:03 PM
Author:  THNKFRST Number:  26 of 31

What a dead subject..

It is interesting to note the absolute "nothingness" on the chat circuit regarding this company. To me "nothing is good" especially when phase 2 and phase 3 projects continue to plug along with potentially HUGE benefits to certain leading drugs in the area of oncology and RA.

I don't have any insights on the potential success of these programs, but I do know that companies (or company) much smarter than most are investing large sums in the potential. Example: Company X invests 600 million in the hope that 3 or 4 of its in market compounds (annual sales 8+ billion USD) may have the ability to be delivered without infusion, and that the new formulation would be good for future exclusivity. Hmm... I am guessing that the pay off would be BIG. In these circumstances the 600 million is not that much risk at even only a 20% chance of success.

The catch is that the combination products are already in phase 3. Usually phase 3 is good for a 50/50 chance. Let's say in this case that the chance is actually 30%? What will HALO's numbers look like if the first product combo works? How much is one willing to risk now for a stock that is at 7+ changeā€¦

It is clear that this is speculation in the context of large corporate investments. I am guessing that Company X would not invest 600 million unless the upside was closer to 20 times that much. What would x% of 12 billion look like to a company like HALO?

Speculation... yes. Well thought through probabilities and possibilities ... yes. This is not a stock for risk averse souls. But get out of the way if the phase 3 studies work. The coming storm will either wipe us out or flood the shores with cash. I've got my beach gear ready. This is one hurricane party that I'm not going to miss.

Let's see what the future holds.

THNKFRST - Long and willing to sink or ride the wave with HALO
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