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Subject:  Re: Poll: Retirement AA going forward Date:  12/30/2010  2:27 PM
Author:  JAFO31 Number:  68029 of 88052

temsike: "We will draw a 3.6% annual withdrawal rate over 40 years.

Our risk tolerance: we would rather not see the retirement portfolio decline by more than 20% in a market event disaster like 2008.

We would like to leave an inheritance equal to the (real, inflation-adjusted) starting value of this portfolio."

I am not sure that all three goals are necessarily doable.

intercst addressed the requirements for limiting downside to not more than 20% decline.

I am surprised that he did not address your desire to leave an estate equal to the real, inflation-adjusted) starting value of this portfolio.

The SWR studies are deemed successful if the account balance remains greater than zero for the term of the withdrawals.

There is a huge difference between having a positive, non-zero remainder and having a remainder equal to the real, inflation adjusted of the initial balance 40 years later.

It seems unlike to me that end target is doable without either (1) a greater portion in equities or (2) a much lower SWR.

intercst's tables would show how many times the remaining balance is greater, in nomial terms, than the initial balance. I have not looked in awhile and do not recall whether it shows the real, inflation adjusted value of the initial starting balance.

Perhaps intercst will respond or if I haev some time (and the inclination) I may go look.

Regards, JAFO
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