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Subject:  Re: Poll: Retirement AA going forward Date:  12/30/2010  9:02 PM
Author:  DrTarr Number:  68035 of 88775

I went for the 60/30/10:

Weighing a few things:
1) instead of "absolutely not" you said you would "rather not see" which is really the feeling of most folks on this board I would bet - we all would rather not see the portfolio drop by 20%. Question-- Is that a 20% decline ever - or are you thinking along the lines of adjusted for inflation a 20% decrease from the "present value?" IOW, you have $1,000,000 today and it goes up to $1,500,000 by 2012 after your withdrawls. Leaving out inflation for an example would you rather not see $1,200,000 or is it really the $800,000 mark that would bother you the most?

2) Absent the "too much risk to sleep well" and the slight chance of a double dip, you may want to think about the "value" of equity in SWR portfolios. You should compare your numbers to the SWR numbers for the 40 years period in the studies. Seems that 3.6% withdrawl is about right but the optimal equity was in the upper 70%'s. While not a fan of only two asset class studies here is the link to intrcst site for you to review the numbers:

3) The worst for a portfolio is not a drop in the first year, it is a drop a couple of years into retirement and then followed by sideways crab walking markets. So in the beginning of the retirment, there is an arguement for a stronger equity position. And you monitor for drops and adjust your allocation based on the current withdrawl rate/amount. This is such the key that seems to be forgotten.

4) Cash position? 10% - perhaps backing that off to ~1.8% a six month emergency fund putting the remaining 8.2% in a ladder in the bond category; Matching duration to your cash flow needs (good muni's on sale right now) That way if you do have to sell unexpectedly, matching the duration will help protect from a big bite on interest rate changes.
Balanced against your love for "dry powder" of course.

5) As far as leaving an estate of equal - inflation adjusted size: Both are doable goals!!! (disclaimer== as predicted by the studies of a backward looking historical type which does not guarantee future performance yada yada,,,)

With the larger equity portion you actually have a greater probability of leaving a larger portfolio than of going broke. (IOW, at the forty year payout, with the optimal equity allocation the median portfolio value ended up (~$7.7K) above the adjusted inflation value (~$3.4K) of the initial portfolio) So - does that guarantee it.. no, but looks like odds are in your favor.

Especially if you manage you portfolio as you go!!!

d(4 asset classes in a retirement portfolio)/dT
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