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Subject:  Re: Discounted Cash Flow Model - Negative FCF Date:  4/26/2011  12:07 PM
Author:  atta9508 Number:  1647 of 1671

It has been awhile since I have posted to this thread. I have been reading up on Damodaran and playing around with one of his models. I have gone through the balance sheet, cashflow, and income statement for a company, read through their annual report a bit (this part is a bit painful) and started playing with the model. I think I have started to settle on the inputs I have chosen. I have no idea if my conclusion is correct of the input assumptions are reasonable. Can anybody recommend a way to check these assumptions to confirm if they are reasonable?

The company I decided to value is Sunpower. Currently I value them at about 4x's what they are trading. Makes me a bit nervous. Here is what I have done so far. Using a high growth model using FCFF.

1. Forecasting Revenue based on growth estimate.
2. Growth estimate is based on two calculations. 1) Assuming constant ROC and reinvestment and 2) My estimate of the market in 2015 and what share they will have.
3. Capitlized R&D
4. Brought operating leases into Debt.
5. Estimate a Beta based on competetors and risk.
6. Included equity options in the valuation

Areas I am not sure about.
1. Estimating Cap Ex in the future. Should I be using current WC as function of Revenues for future cap ex or should I provide an estimate. Not real comfortable