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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/bi-dow30-mar-6-2012-picks-29892071.aspx

Subject:  BI - Dow30 - Mar 6, 2012 Picks Date:  3/6/2012  10:22 AM
Author:  AllTooFoolish Number:  5922 of 6020

Based on the latest results, VL Mar 9, 2012 update, there are four  stocks in the DOW30 that meet the criteria for a Long-term hold according 
to the TTD methods. The four companies meeting the TTD criteria for long positions are CSCO, AA, HPQ, and WMT. Using the same valuation
technique in reverse, shows that BA is the most overvalued DOW stock and might be considered for a Short position. Also, the overall current
downside risk in the market seems to be about -14%,while the upside is +29%. This implies we have moved more toward the middle as of late, 
but remain in a slightly oversold position. 

I am using the following TTD rules:
1. Year-over-Year EPS growth must > 10%, which is the next 4Q / current quarter + previous 3 quarters earnings results
2. VL 3-5 Year price appreciation < average price appreciation of the market
3. When calculating ROE and BV figures, ignore years when are negative, but must have at least 7+ years of data to be included in final consideration
4. Avoid erratic ROE ratios, that is where they are > 2std deviations = Curr ROE > (10 Year Avg + 2 * Std Dev)



Summary of Results
											
	VL	        Current	Down	Up	%<10Y	EPS	3-5Y L 3-5Y H VL 3-5Y   ROE	
Ticker	Date	        Price	Price	Price	Down	Delta	VL $	VL $	% Chg	<2STD	Name
CAT	24-Feb-12	 111. 	79.47	141.	40%	20%	145.	215.	30%	FALSE	Caterpillar Inc.
JNJ	24-Feb-12	 64.81 	74.82	94.98	-13%	2%	90.00	105.00	39%	TRUE	Johnson & Johnson
MCD	2-Mar-12	 99.17 	81.65	117.06	21%	9%	110.00	130.00	11%	TRUE	McDonald's Corp.
CVX	9-Mar-12	 109. 	116.	165.	-6%	5%	130.	160.	19%	FALSE	Chevron Corp.
XOM	9-Mar-12	 86.36 	80.80	112.40	7%	-2%	120.00	145.00	39%	FALSE	Exxon Mobil Corp.
BA	16-Dec-11	 74.92 	25.42	41.38	195%	10%	90.00	120.00	20%	FALSE	Boeing
TRV	16-Dec-11	 58.04 	28.54	42.65	103%	78%	80.00	100.00	38%	FALSE	Travelers Cos.
T	23-Dec-11	 30.82 	22.93	33.98	34%	16%	40.00	50.00	30%	FALSE	AT&T Inc.
VZ	23-Dec-11	 38.78 	18.65	26.69	108%	18%	55.00	65.00	42%	FALSE	Verizon Communic.
CSCO	23-Dec-11	 19.72 	23.55	43.16	-16%	35%	30.00	35.00	52%	FALSE	Cisco Systems
HD	30-Dec-11	 47.63 	31.42	50.29	52%	10%	45.00	55.00	-6%	FALSE	Home Depot
PG	30-Dec-11	 66.64 	52.88	69.30	26%	17%	90.00	110.00	35%	FALSE	Procter & Gamble
INTC	6-Jan-12	 26.77 	37.90	68.60	-29%	0%	50.00	60.00	87%	FALSE	Intel Corp.
HPQ	6-Jan-1