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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/bi-dow30-april-2-2012-picks-29953221.aspx

Subject:  BI - Dow30 - April 2, 2012 Picks Date:  4/3/2012  8:22 AM
Author:  AllTooFoolish Number:  5923 of 6020

Based on the latest results, VL Apr 6 2012 update, there are three  stocks in the DOW30 that meet the criteria for a Long-term hold according 
to the TTD methods. The companies meeting the TTD criteria for Long positions are CSCO, AA, and HPQ. Using the same valuation
technique in reverse, shows that BA and IBM are the most overvalued DOW stock and might be considered for a Short position. Also, the overall current
downside risk in the market seems to be about -15%,while the upside is +26%. This implies we have moved more toward the middle as of late, 
but remain in a slightly oversold position. 

I am using the following TTD rules:
1. Year-over-Year EPS growth must > 10%, which is the next 4Q / current quarter + previous 3 quarters earnings results
2. VL 3-5 Year price appreciation < average price appreciation of the market
3. When calculating ROE and BV figures, ignore years when are negative, but must have at least 7+ years of data to be included in final consideration
4. Avoid erratic ROE ratios, that is where they are > 2std deviations = Curr ROE > (10 Year Avg + 2 * Std Dev)



Summary of Results												
											
	VL	        Current	Down	Up	%<10Y	EPS	Div    3-5Y L 3-5Y H VL 3-5Y   ROE	
Ticker	Date	        Price	Price	Price	Down	Delta   Yield   VL $	VL $	% Chg	<2STD	Name
CAT	24-Feb-12	107	79.19	141	35%	20%	1.8	145	215	36%	FALSE	Caterpillar Inc.
JNJ	24-Feb-12	65.96	74.82	94.98	-12%	2%	3.5	90	105	36%	TRUE	Johnson & Johnson
MCD	2-Mar-12	98.1	81.65	117	20%	9%	2.9	110	130	12%	TRUE	McDonald's Corp.
CVX	9-Mar-12	107	117	167	-8%	5%	3.0	130	160	21%	FALSE	Chevron Corp.
XOM	9-Mar-12	86.73	80.8	112	7%	-2%	2.3	120	145	38%	FALSE	Exxon Mobil Corp.
BA	16-Mar-12	74.37	29.24	45.36	154%	-11%	2.4	90	125	21%	FALSE	Boeing
TRV	16-Mar-12	59.2	45.61	67.11	30%	77%	2.8	80	100	35%	FALSE	Travelers Cos.
T	23-Mar-12	31.23	22.97	33.31	36%	7%	5.7	40	50	28%	FALSE	AT&T Inc.
VZ	23-Mar-12	38.23	17.94	25.64	113%	16%	5.3	55	70	44%	FALSE	Verizon Communic.
CSCO	23-Mar-12	21.15	23.9	39.78	-12%	24%	1.5	30	35	42%	FALSE	Cisco Systems
HD	30-Mar-12	50.31	31.72	49.84	59%	14%	2.3	60	70	19%	FALSE	Home Depot
PG	30-Mar-12	67.21	56.31	72.41	19%	5%	3.1	90	110	34%	FALSE	Procter & Gamble
INTC	6-Apr-12	28.11	35.09	60.72	-20%	0%	3.0	45	55	60%	TRUE	Intel Corp.
HPQ	6-Apr-12	23.83	33.25