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|Subject: Re: Gold - Updated TA||Date: 5/18/2012 11:33 AM|
|Author: MDCigan||Number: 41075 of 41340|
Looks like you get that chance today.
Yup, just reshorted 1 mini contract at 1595...I debated going long for the bounce at 1525-1535 the other day, but passed on that one.
Anyways, the principle is support once broken becomes resistance so the 1600-1610 should function as strong overhead resistance. If it doesn't, then I'm out with a small loss. Will look to cover again at 1530-1535.
In my view, 1525-1535 to 1600ish is the new trading range until proven otherwise, but my bias is still for more significant downside, and the 1525-1535 not holding. I think we really need a total washout, massive outflows from GLD, and a deafening chorus of people proclaiming "the gold bubble has burst". I think those conditions would be more conducive for a lasting cyclicl bottom. Gold has only had 1 cyclical bear (2008) in the ongoing secular bull (2001-present) so it is probably due for another.
The tricky part here is trying to find some reasonable long-term support levels. My first thought is to look at Fib retracement levels, with a target of the 50% retracement which is 1300 (1924-681, half of that, subtracted off 1924).
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