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|Subject: Re: Gold - Updated TA||Date: 6/26/2012 9:23 PM|
|Author: MDCigan||Number: 41125 of 41314|
What do you think will happen to Gold if Euro Zone dis-integrates?
Hard to say....I'd really just be guessing. A very messy break-up should send deflationary shockwaves through the global economy which would be bearish for gold, but you also could see Europeans using gold as a flight to safety.
FWIW, I got out of my long gold trade the day before the Fed/Bernanke announcement at around 1607.
I believe the extremely choppy, almost schizophrenic price action in gold represents the massive uncertainty on a day to day basis as to what the Fed and more importantly the ECB will do.
At least to me right now, I get the sense that most markets (except U.S. stocks) are starting to consistently price in continued deflationary expectations (U.S. Treasuries, crude oil, the broad commodity complex)
FWIW, I'm watching silver right now for a potential short trade. Silver is tracing out the mother of all descending triangles off the April top of 50. 26 and change has been a bounce point about 5 times since early 2011. A close below 26 to me would suggest a sizable downmove perhaps retracing all of the bull move starting in summer 2010 which would take silver back to the mid to high teens.
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