The Motley Fool Discussion Boards

Previous Page

Investing Books / Benchmark Investing

URL:  http://boards.fool.com/july-2012-picks-30189499.aspx

Subject:  July 2012 Picks Date:  8/6/2012  5:39 PM
Author:  AllTooFoolish Number:  5927 of 6016

Based on the latest results as of today’s data release, only Cisco would qualify as a Long candidate. 
Although several stocks are significantly overvalued according to the BI valuation methods, none would qualify as a short candidate.

Market Valuation: Data suggests we are at Parity valuation.
Downside -19%
Upside +20%

I am using the following TTD rules for Long position considerations:
1. Year-over-Year EPS growth must > 10%, which is the next 4Q / current quarter + previous 3 quarters earnings results
2. VL 3-5 Year price appreciation > average price appreciation of the market
3. When calculating ROE and BV figures, ignore years when are negative, but must have at least 7+ years of data to be 
   included in final consideration
4. Avoid erratic ROE ratios, that is where they are > 2std deviations = Curr ROE > (10 Year Avg + 2 * Std Dev)


Summary of Results												
											
	VL	        Current	Down	Up	%<10Y	EPS	Div    3-5Y L 3-5Y H VL 3-5Y   ROE	
Ticker	Date	        Price	Price	Price	Down	Delta   Yield   VL $	VL $	% Chg	<2STD	Name
CAT	25-May-12	 85.02 	81.53	144	4%	14%	2.5	145	215	116%	FALSE	Caterpillar Inc.
JNJ	25-May-12	 69.12 	62.96	79.92	10%	4%	3.6	80	100	31%	TRUE	Johnson & Johnson
MCD	1-Jun-12	 89.59 	66.92	95.93	34%	12%	3.1	110	130	33%	FALSE	McDonald's Corp.
CVX	8-Jun-12	 111	86.51	123	28%	9%	3.3	130	160	32%	FALSE	Chevron Corp.
XOM	8-Jun-12	 87.55 	67.55	93.98	30%	8%	2.7	110	135	42%	FALSE	Exxon Mobil Corp.
BA	15-Jun-12	 72.81 	45.77	71.02	59%	-9%	2.4	90	125	49%	FALSE	Boeing
TRV	15-Jun-12	 63.71 	45.24	66.57	41%	12%	2.9	80	100	43%	FALSE	Travelers Cos.
T	22-Jun-12	 37.58 	26.15	37.93	44%	8%	4.7	40	50	19%	FALSE	AT&T Inc.
VZ	22-Jun-12	 44.46 	21.39	30.57	108%	13%	4.5	55	70	40%	FALSE	Verizon Communic.
CSCO	22-Jun-12	 16.35 	20.76	34.55	-21%	21%	2.0	30	35	106%	FALSE	Cisco Systems
HD	29-Jun-12	 52.29 	32.58	51.18	60%	12%	2.3	60	70	26%	FALSE	Home Depot
PG	29-Jun-12	 65.50 	50.13	64.46	31%	-3%	3.5	90	110	57%	FALSE	Procter & Gamble
INTC	6-Jul-12	 26.23 	29.90	51.75	-12%	10%	3.5	45	55	92%	FALSE	Intel Corp.
HPQ	6-Jul-12	 18.26 	21.50	36.71	-15%	-17%	3.0	40	60	184%	FALSE	Hewlett-Packa