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Investment Analysis Clubs / The BMW Method


Subject:  Re: Which BMW chart? Date:  8/30/2012  4:37 PM
Author:  cyclelex Number:  40687 of 42234

I have asked similar questions in the past as Maniladad, and have not been quite satisfied with the answers. I think their might not be a clear answer, or they are different for every company.

My question has always been:

We like long histories of CAGR. 30+ if available, 14 as a minimum. Is there a way to account for changing from a high growth model to a slower growth more mature company? Take the first ten years and cut that off the chart?

I bought MSFT back in 2000 at the worst possible time. It had a great avg and current cagr. All of sudden high growth was over and it was flatter prospects. They continue to make great profit, but from a shareholder perspective it's been dead money for 12 years. From Jan 2000 to today it is approx. 1.8% CAGR (That's Yahoo with Divs. included).

If we were to evaluate MSFT today, when would we start the left edge of the chart?
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