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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/the-particulars-of-polls-30292602.aspx

Subject:  The Particulars of Polls Date:  10/1/2012  10:25 AM
Author:  arrete Number:  646368 of 745866

>> it's getting much harder for pollsters to get people to respond to interviews. The Pew Research Center reports that it's getting only 9 percent of the people it contacts to respond to its questions. That's compared to 36 percent in 1997.
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Are those 9 percent representative of the larger population? As that percentage declines, it seems increasingly possible that the sample is unrepresentative of the much larger voting public. One thing a poll can't tell us is the opinion of people who refuse to be polled.

Then there is the problem of cellphone-only households.
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exit polls showed an even break on party identification in 2004 and 2010. But many September polls and some earlier polls showed Democrats with an even bigger party identification lead than four years before.

That seems implausible.
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Pollster Scott Rasmussen, who weights his robocall results by party identification, adjusted monthly, has shown a much closer race than most pollsters who leave party identification numbers unweighted. So has the Susquehanna poll in Pennsylvania.

It may be that we're seeing the phenomenon we've seen for years in exit polls, which have consistently skewed Democratic
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Democrats were simply more willing to fill out the exit poll. That raises the question: Are we seeing the same thing in this month's polls? <<
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/10/01/the_par...

arrete
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