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Subject:  Q4 Should Be Good for Bonds Date:  10/1/2012  3:07 PM
Author:  trader2012 Number:  34426 of 36326

Generally speaking, when stocks do well, bonds do poorly. That’s why Buy&Hold, “we don’t time the market” investors typically own some of both, so they can hedge their bets. But if Q3 earnings meet their underwhelming expectations, then stock prices will fall, and bond prices will rise even further. That's good for them already in, tough for those still trying to get in. Shop carefully.

Once again future guidance from these companies [i.e., those soon to be reporting their Q3 earnings] will be critical and we will get more clarity once we know who will occupy the White House. But the guidance in the past few months has not been a positive. Of the 101 companies that provided guidance for the third quarter, some 72 percent were negative.

Things are seen picking back up in the fourth quarter, with overall earnings growth expected at nearly 10 percent - but many sources I speak to are questioning such a bounce from negative to double-digit growth. Revenue is still expected to be anemic in the fourth quarter, coming in at about 3 percent with materials seen rebounding 25 percent based on increased demand for construction, metals and mining.

By all counts, these numbers are underwhelming. Particularly in a market that does not have a whole lot of room for error with the Fed bond buying program taking stocks high and expectations even higher.
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