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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/kyle-bass-on-europe-fiscal-cliff-30297204.aspx

Subject:  Kyle Bass on Europe, Fiscal Cliff Date:  10/3/2012  11:09 AM
Author:  notehound Number:  405239 of 449348

Bubblevision just featured an informal interview with Kyle Bass.

Interesting points Bass makes:

1. Europe is like an extended family with a history of fighting. No one would agree to be "jointly and severally liable" for debt obligations with their own extended family. Neither will Germany, in the end. Likewise, countries won't surrender their sovereignty to Germany. He has no suggestions as to how to play this, from an investing viewpoint. Timing of when the above observations are realized? Who knows.

2. The fiscal cliff will be averted because the politicians' careers can't afford sequestration.

3. Monetary debasement is just now starting to kick in across-the-globe, since earlier money was just filling holes in balance sheets. Gold has some value (as an alternate currency), but only for a limited percentage of assets.

4. You should buy any fixed (real) productive asset you can get your hands on that produces income. Oil wells, farmland, apartments, rental houses.

5. After making his name by shorting subprime and Alt-A mortgage debt, he has taken a long position in the same assets - now owning/controlling 1% of the entire subprime/Alt-A bond inventory in existence.

6. Real estate has stabilized, but massive shadow (unforeclosed/not yet listed) inventory will keep real estate from making rapid or substantial gains.

Obviously, Bass is making money off the Fed's intentional inflation of mortgage assets.

Kyle Bass is a smart guy. Of course, he's saying the same things that METARites have been saying for a long time.

Maybe he gets his investing ideas from METAR.

;-)
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