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Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway
|Subject: Same old ring of fire..||Date: 10/3/2012 11:09 AM|
|Author: Technodweeb||Number: 194615 of 209625|
The market noise creeps in every once in a while, and threatens my Berkshire holdings. My future...
I have been listening to Gross and the Pimco soldiers, and also from time to time I will see El-Erian on CNBC.. for years. I hear about "the new normal". While they make believable and compelling arguments, and seem to be so knowledgeable about the financial markets (and no doubt they are), they have not done so well lately, as they have tried to time the markets on a macro level. I believe they missed the major bond rally as they thought rates would rise, and as well missed the equity rally. I will say, he was accurate about QE3. I believe he also went into CA muni bonds during the best time to get them, and that has done well also. But it still hasn't made their returns stellar.
Also when I was listening to Einhorn yesterday, and despite his great calls recently, he still could not manage to beat the SP500 by any significant degree if at all (I forget the exact numbers). And I hate to knock Tilson, but his last two years have been dreadful. So much for hedge funds. They are a dying breed I hear as the SP500 has steamrolled over most of them.
Even the Buffett of the North, Prem Watsa hedging the daylights out of his long equity portfolio to the point it made no sense to me, and buying big into a tech company that is living on a hope and a prayer.
And then it occurred to me like an old bell chiming off in the middle of town, always faithful, as I remember how Buffett has always been #1, and for so long. He follows Graham's examples to this day, of course with what he has picked up along the way through the years.
"Investing is most intelligent when it is most business like". Plain vanilla thinking that works (most of the time).
These are no doubt to me, the most important words I have ever heard on investing, and I am sure to many others.
And the stock is still cheap.
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