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|Subject: Re: Intrade Prez odds...||Date: 10/4/2012 3:48 PM|
|Author: warrl||Number: 647026 of 864507|
Good news....looks like the debate last night had a sizable effect on Intrade. Obama's chances of winning the re-election had been pushing 75-80% for a couple of weeks now.
Well, this morning, it plummeted down to 66% after his poor performance. Awesome.
I just took a look at the InTrade market to see how big it is and here I found:
Total size of the Obama-gets-elected market (shares outstanding times current price): $5.7 million.
Total size of the Romney-gets-elected market: $3.4 million.
That's a total of $9.1 million.
In comparison, the Obama campaign reportedly had $130 million cash on hand at the end of August, while the Romney campaign had $191 million. http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/campaign-finance
Conclusion 1: it would be trivially easy and cheap for either campaign to manipulate these markets.
Conclusion 2: in context, they don't mean much.
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