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|Subject: Re: Intrade Prez odds...||Date: 10/4/2012 7:41 PM|
|Author: AOLFoolman100||Number: 647064 of 794385|
I guess my further question is why would the Obama administration spend millions on Intrade to affect the percentages...ie. to manipulate the odds between Romney and Obama. I would think spending the money on traditional campaigning would be better spent.
I mean, seriously, what percentage of the population knows about Intrade.com?? I would guess, a very, very small percentage...not enough to really affect the election. Who is viewing the numbers and allowing it to affect their votes? I'd bet a tiny tiny slice of the population.
Do you think it really affects voter turnout or voter sentiment.....hec, I'm all over the internet all day long, love stats, and didn't know about Intrade until about a month ago.
You would also expect people who are in it to make money to push the price back down if it's overvalued.
Exactly. That's correct. And I agree...with conditions. You're appealing to the efficiency of a large market. When it's efficient, with plenty of participants, yes, the price of the share (odds that Obama/