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Subject:  Re: Intrade Prez odds... Date:  10/4/2012  8:14 PM
Author:  warrl Number:  647065 of 876040

To Warrl:

I guess my further question is why would the Obama administration spend millions on Intrade to affect the to manipulate the odds between Romney and Obama. I would think spending the money on traditional campaigning would be better spent.

It wouldn't take $4 million. The entire Romney-wins market is less than $4 million. Today's volume - think it might have been a busy day after last night's debate? - is under $160K, under 50K shares. Optimistically assuming that a short order requires 100% coverage of the $10 max price, it would require someone put up a mere $31,600 to enter a short order for 1/10 of the daily volume.

Going long on Obama would be even cheaper, because you only have to put up the purchase price of the shares. Going long 1/10 of today's volume would cost $27,500.

And why? Because a legend has formed that InTrade is usefully predictive. So manipulating InTrade to give an impression of your choosing is approximately as good as manipulating most polls - and probably cheaper.
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