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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/you-would-also-expect-people-who-are-in-it-to-30301111.aspx

Subject:  Re: Intrade Prez odds... Date:  10/4/2012  8:56 PM
Author:  MadCapitalist Number:  647079 of 726078

You would also expect people who are in it to make money to push the price back down if it's overvalued.

Exactly. That's correct. And I agree...with conditions. You're appealing to the efficiency of a large market. When it's efficient, with plenty of participants, yes, the price of the share (odds that Obama/Romney is elected) should accurately reflect all known information. But Warrl's solid, but arguable point is that it's too small - therefore not efficient.


If it's a small market, then the price should be easy to push down as well as push up.
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