The Motley Fool Discussion Boards

Previous Page

Politics & Current Events / Retire Early CampFIRE


Subject:  Re: Intrade Prez odds... Date:  10/4/2012  8:57 PM
Author:  warrl Number:  647081 of 876388

Exactly. That's correct. And I agree...with conditions. You're appealing to the efficiency of a large market. When it's efficient, with plenty of participants, yes, the price of the share (odds that Obama/Romney is elected) should accurately reflect all known information. But Warrl's solid, but arguable point is that it's too small - therefore not efficient.

Not exactly.

My point is that, relative to the size of the entities with incentive to manipulate it, it's too small - therefore *cannot be trusted* to be efficient.
Copyright 1996-2018 trademark and the "Fool" logo is a trademark of The Motley Fool, Inc. Contact Us