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Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway
|Subject: Re: Still cheap at 4 year high||Date: 10/5/2012 10:28 AM|
|Author: rationalwalk||Number: 194674 of 215020|
Maybe the best solution is to think about the business and not the stock price?
Of course that is the proper way to look at things, but nearly all investors have psychological biases related to stock prices (anchoring, waiting to "break even", depression when a stock price falls immediately after buying, euphoria when a stock price rises rapidly, etc). Obviously not everyone suffers from all of these biases. But most people are affected to one degree or another.
I very much doubt that I will sell any shares until I need the money for living expenses.
Then that would ignore any price to value considerations between now and then. In my opinion, a security should be sold if the after-tax proceeds from a sale can be reinvested in another opportunity that has a high probability of achieving better long term returns adjusted for differences in business risk. A security should also be sold if prospective returns appear to be very low going forward even if a replacement security cannot be immediately found. In such a situation, cash is a residual that Buffett views as a call option on every asset class:
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