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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/however-ive-read-and-been-told-by-posters-30302012.aspx

Subject:  Re: Intrade Prez odds... Date:  10/5/2012  10:51 AM
Author:  JLC Number:  647142 of 734825

However, I've read (and been told by posters here) that Intrade is very accurate.

Intrade has only been around since 1999. So at most it has predicted 3 Presidential elections. That's like calling a rookie a hall of famer because he goes 3 for 3 in his first game.

Yes it has an accurate history, but it has a brief history. Not enough time for black swans to occur. Just remember, the intrade of the day said Dewey beat Truman.

JLC
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