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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/funding-retirement-30302929.aspx

Subject:  Funding Retirement Date:  10/5/2012  4:41 PM
Author:  trader2012 Number:  34456 of 35924

What are the odds that you will live to age 80? 90? 100? Alternatively, what are the odds that you will need to fund your retirement at least until then? There are many ways to estimate one’s lifespan. But one way to obtain an impartial estimate is to convert a period-life chart (such as is found at the Social Security website) into a betting table, as has been done below. http://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html#fn2

Male Female
Age Odds Odds


79 51.0% 64.6%
80 48.0% 61.9%
81 44.9% 59.1%
82 41.7% 56.1%
83 38.4% 52.9%
84 35.1% 49.6%
85 31.7% 46.1%
86 28.3% 42.5%
87 25.0% 38.8%
88 21.8% 35.0%
89 18.7% 31.1%
90 15.7% 27.3%
91 13.0% 23.6%
92 10.5% 20.0%
93 8.3% 16.7%
94 6.4% 13.6%
95 4.8% 10.8%
96 3.5% 8.4%
97 2.5% 6.4%
98 1.7% 4.7%
99 1.1% 3.4%
100 0.75% 2.41%
101 0.48% 1.66%
102 0.30% 1.11%
103 0.18% 0.72%
104 0.10% 0.45%
105 0.06% 0.28%
106 0.03% 0.16%
107 0.02% 0.09%
108 0.01% 0.05%

Yes, females are going to live, on average, 3-4 years longer than males. But the important question either needs to answer is this. “How much risk am I willing to accept?” If you fund your retirement to a confidence level of one standard deviation, or 68%, you’re making a 2:3 bet that you won’t live past age 85 (male) or age 89 (female). If you