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|Subject: Re: 7.8%: Cooked?||Date: 10/5/2012 5:08 PM|
|Author: zoningfool||Number: 106887 of 153649|
Some over at Pimco are suspicious of the numbers--in an interview on CNBC this afternoon--Pimco's Mohammed El-Erian was asked about possible shenanigans with the unemployment numbers--while he himself was not calling their validity into question, he admitted some of those who work at Pimco--whose job it is to scour the data--had serious concerns about the unemployment figure--mentioning concerns regarding gov't employment specifically--reflecting these concerns he stated: "isn't it peculiar that they (the numbers) are doing that now". Here's part of the transcript--note the bolded portion:
...there's job growth. we find out what that number is. that is what leads to the unemployment number. but they're completely disconnected. we really see that today. jack welsh says there's a problem with the voracity of these numbers. i think what we're seeing is just a reality from month to month. over time they tend to converge. in any one month, you do get differences. this month is one of them. are they open to manipulation? i don't buy the conspiracy theory. there are certain people at pimco who do. i respect their point of view. this is just what happens when you have two different ways of collecting data. 115,000 jobs is certainly nothing to get excited about. the number is anemic. certainly not a bullish call. if you're going to fake the number, you do it big. absolutely. that's why i don't buy into it. you're just picking up the issue. it's a key element for the market. so step back. why is the market not as enthusiastic as some people would like it? because it realizes that we need to pivot. so far we've had a correct rally based on chopping off the tails of catastrophe. between what the fed has been doing and what the ecb has been doing, that has reduced the tail risks in the short term. in order to keep going, we need to hand off to fundamentals. today's employment report, while better, is not strong enough for that hand off.
cnbc: can i follow up with something you said earlier? you said there are other people at pimco who do believe it's a possible conspiracy theory. tell me more about that. is that bill?
el-erian: no, some other people on the trade floor. we go into incredible detail on this report. some say, hey, wait a minute, how could you have government jobs doing what they're doing? isn't it peculiar they're doing that now?
Unemployment rate 7.8%; Unemployment rate contradicted by job growth report
Today’s unemployment report met the political threshold set by Obama of being below 8 percent.
To reach this threshold, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics found that an astounding 873,000 people found full-time jobs last mont