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Investment Analysis Clubs / The BMW Method

URL:  http://boards.fool.com/sorry-about-replying-to-my-own-post-but-it-looks-30303324.aspx

Subject:  Re: Looking at the Dow30 Date:  10/5/2012  9:16 PM
Author:  Jim2B Number:  40722 of 41634

Sorry about replying to my own post, but it looks like AA's primary (or possibly even exclusive) problem with earnings is the low aluminum price. This low price is driven by both current and projected low demand for aluminum.

We know that commodities are cyclical and we know that cyclicals eventually recover.

The problem is that Europe, North America, and Asia all suffer from fundamental economic issues. The market thinks the world won't begin the recovery in the near future - thus the low price for AA.

If you are a contrarian this may a good point to buy some AA (I already own some). I haven't decided whether to buy more yet or not.

Jim
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