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Investment Analysis Clubs / Macro Economic Trends and Risks
|Subject: METAR Contest Standings: 3rd Quarter end!||Date: 10/7/2012 1:47 AM|
|Author: lobodoug||Number: 405453 of 471670|
First, somehow, either through an error on my part, or something that occurred when Google migrated Google Docs to their new G-Drive, a lot of information was lost, so I have had to rebuild the spreadsheet. In particular, dividend info was lost.
I have gone through each company on the list and searched their dividends on DIVIDEND.COM. If it was not listed there, I believe it is not paying a dividend. Feel free to check, though, and let me know if this is incorrect. They only list the past 4 dividends, so with companies that pay monthly I went to the company website. Some of those, to simplify my life, I list all dividends paid through the end of the third quarter as one payment for the 3rd quarter instead of breaking them down for each quarter. In addition to the simple standings spreadsheet, I will give a link to view the full spreadsheet for anyone who wants to check that I have their stock's dividends entered correctly.
So, to the standings. Well, it seems that, while there might be some jockeying for the lead in this horse race, the same horses are leading with most of us betting on dogs, far behind the lead!
1) ANDROCLES, with AAPL and WFM, up a combined 51%. Androcles has led, or been just behind 1st all year, and this performance with two stocks is very impressive so far.
2) Dkline1, also with AAPL, and his bet on Santander Bank now looking good, is second with a combined 44%. Santander has changed the symbol of its ADR from STD (uh, yeah...not the best choice!) to SAN. This wreaked havok with my spreadsheet until I figured it out!
3) knightof3 with MED and BRK.A is up 34%
LONG SHOT STOCKS:
1) PeterRabbit, up 114%, with PPP
2) EddieLuck is up 94%, with SGMNF
3) goldountry is up 90% with TRX
Hmmmm. Very Interesting. All three of these are small gold miners. While (so far...remember, there are 3 months to go) Androcles has shown us that big, solid companies can have great returns, but clearly these three guys have shown us that we all should have been buying obscure gold miners! SGMNF and TRX do not even show profits! But PPP has a P/E of 6.5. Anyone care to make bear and bull cases for an investment today in PPP? With so many countries debasing their currencies, perhaps the gold run is not over?
SAFE BET STOCKS:
OK, this one is starting to sound like a broken record! Kudos for the leaders, again, with a tie for first having chosen AAPL:
1) ANDROCLES and Dkline1
3) bryanstryin with SLW. Do I hear Sonny Page laughing somewhere? Unfortunately, Silver is not without risks still, as shown by bryanstryin's Long Shot choice: USSIF, US Silver, is the only stock in our contest so far to go to $0.
The METAR PORTFOLIOS:
Long Shot: up 1.57%
Safe Bet: up 4.9%
Combined: up 4.07%
vs the SPY, up 14.32%
And, for the "No Where To Go But Up" award, for being in dead last place, we have: well, I won't name names. You can check for yourself by visiting the Google Spreadsheets, and see how you compare to our stars.
Simple Spreadsheet with all results:
Full Spreadsheet, if you want to check on dividend data:
One more piece of business: Next Years Contest. It is time to start thinking how you would set up the contest, and if you are willing to run it as I will step down. Towards the end of the month I will start a thread for people to post their ideas for a contest. My inclination is to say that only those willing to run the contest can suggest a methodology...but maybe that is my bias. Once we have some suggestions and discussion, I will set up a poll to vote on methodology.
Stay tuned! And let me know of any errors you find (very possible with all the re-entry of data!)
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