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Investment Analysis Clubs / Macro Economic Trends and Risks
|Subject: Re: Countdown to the next financial bomb||Date: 10/7/2012 2:14 PM|
|Author: Goofyhoofy||Number: 405490 of 512782|
1. First, that women on Wall Street have no power is irrelevant. I trust the studies which show that men (as a group) overestimate their ability to judge risk, and that women (as a group) swagger less, but so what? What gets you to the top in that field is making outsize bets and being right. If/when women get to a position of power, they are likely to be not reflective of the meme, and will be those who also take outsized risks and thereby have outsized success. For a while.
It's the culture of the street, not the predilection of one sex or another, that puts so much risk at risk.
2. There will be more failures, and they may be catastrophic. How catastrophic is the question. The disaster at JPM didn't bring down the entire global system, nor did the one at MF Global. It is only those that happen at a particular place and time, with such internal weakness and interconnectedness to others, and using such vast leverage that threatens me.
So some of JPM partners, managers, and stock owners got hammered? Too bad. So MF Global has 1,000 lawsuits? Oh well. I only care when the damage reaches other shores. (By the way, notice how all those screaming about "moral hazard" a while back don't seem to notice that firms are still going upside down and no one is jumping up to help them?
3. You are right; banks will not stop doing these things until prohibited by regulation. We learned that 80 years ago, but managed to unlearn it thanks to various "respected" think tanks.
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