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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/bids-on-a-major-earthquake-happening-before-the-30310298.aspx

Subject:  Re: We need another debate. Date:  10/10/2012  6:10 AM
Author:  MadCapitalist Number:  647992 of 753672

Bids on a major earthquake happening before the end of the year cannot actually affect the likelihood of that event. I'll look at InTrade as possibly having predictive value on that... but not on the election.

I hope you are right. Unfortunately, your case is more conjecture than anything.
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