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Subject:  random ideas Date:  10/10/2012  2:43 PM
Author:  gocanucks Number:  15087 of 26125

i was in a bit of funk last few months with new idea generation. i also discovered sitting on cash seems to demoralize myself. just in the last few days, i am starting to find more ideas and become more motivated.

FDX: wow. when was the last time a big-cap company just detail how they will produce $3 extra EPS regardless of macro? which large cap industrial company has a division accounting over 1/2 of profits growing volume at 10% clip and have structural cost advantage over the incumbent? this growth-at-any-cost company now cites rails' playbook? i haven't felt this excited about a large-cap name since GOOG/NWSA.

YHOO: yeah. same old thesis. stock hasn't gone anywhere in 2 years, but that's the beauty. assets quality/visibility have all improved. Big capital return on the horizon. Dynamic new CEO. Core biz essentially at $1/share despite throwing off 70c FCF. if turn-around doesn't work, there is that AOL playbook (which is just up 130% YTD). downside is dead money, but upside? sure feels better than cash.

AVP: admittedly dubious business model. looks expensive on current earnings, but margin is way below average/peers. Did people see the new chairman? He has only turned around and sold 2 giant companies before. (Pharmacia and SGP). there was some poster on this board (sorry i forgot his handle) a while ago with a turn-around candidate checklist. AVP seems to fit that template to a T.

INTC: oh, the dreaded PC market. i admit i have no special insight here. but at least they don't have the terrible B/S of HPQ. one could make a case for their server chip division is worth most of current EV. It also sports over 4% dividend yield, which is an "accidental high yielder" to borrow a Cramer term.

CHKP: 15% FCF/EV. enough said. i freely admit i buy software companies at 15% FCF/EV with eyes closed.
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