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|Subject: Electoral College Math||Date: 10/10/2012 9:40 PM|
|Author: woodymw||Number: 1823205 of 2080839|
So the day after the first presidential debate my boss, a military guy I can only assume is a Republican, asserted his theory that there are a whole bunch of people who were sitting on the fence just waiting for a reason to like Mitt Romney … and that he thought Governor Romney’s debate performance was it. His expectation was that Romney’s bump would be pretty substantial, and in many ways that has been the case. There have been several polls released that indicate an admirable bump for him, and in some cases he has now taken the lead.
And all of this is good for him. Makes for an exciting election, I guess.
The problem is that these polls are largely meaningless. In the United States of America, presidents are not elected by direct popular vote – they are elected by the representatives of the Electoral College, an anachronistic and misunderstood body that only really is discussed every 4 years and then only in passing unless something like the 2000 presidential election happens.
So, given that a national popular vote doesn't mean anything (ask Al Gore) and that national polling is therefore irrelevant, what we should be looking at is Electoral College math – and that paints a different picture. There are several sites that will do running totals, and I follow three of them pretty closely. Most of what I’m about to do below is based on how these sites have trended over the last several weeks & months … those sites are:
www.electoral-vote.com Run by a Democrat and my favorite in terms of readability
www.electionprojection.com Run by a Republican and not updated as regularly as I’d like
www.270towin.com Useful largely for a current “Probability of reaching 270”, which helps with trends
OK – based on what I’ve seen, there are several states that can be pretty well considered “safe” for both Democrats and Republicans:
OK – so this is a starting point that is going to be pretty hard to argue with, I think. Probably the biggest arguable inclusion here is Wisconsin for Obama, given the Paul Ryan connection. However, all of the poll aggregation has been very consistent over time, and there is of course the 2008 history … overall, I don’t think that is too egregious.
So right off the bat we see that the starting line is not in the same place. Governor Romney’s problem is that the states where he is most popular tend to be smaller in population – most of the old South and the plains states especially. If you take just the top three states in each “safe” column (California, New York, and Illinois for Obama; Texas, Georgia, and Arizona for Romney) you can see that these spot Obama a 39 point lead before things have even gotten started good. Romney has to make up for that with the smaller population states, and there are only so many of those before the runway shortens too much. Given this built-in lead, the Romney campaign’s strategy on the right-most column is critical because there is very little room for error.
And that room for error factor really starts shortening up if you start being realistic about the column on the right. For example – Missouri is going to vote for Romney. They voted for McCain in 2008, and they have been consistently leaning right this whole cycle. Michigan has consistently leaned left, and Romney’s auto-industry bailout problems mean that his chances there are realistically pretty slim. North Carolina has flopped a little, but has leaned right a bit too much to discount – the Obama camp has basically conceded here, though they won’t tell you that. But I’m not giving Romney North Carolina without giving Iowa to Obama – they have wobbled very little on the “barely Democrat” side of the line. Just those four states, which the campaigns would argue about but which represent pretty reasonable assessment of the prevailing wisdom and campaign direction, make that table look like this:
And now Mitt Romney’s math problem becomes very clear – he can’t and won’t win everything. But the built in lead that President Obama has means that every single electoral vote lost is absolutely critical.
So now lets take a look at what is left.
The first thing to do is state the obvious – Obama won every one of those states in 2008.
If Romney loses Florida, he must sweep each of the other “in play” states in order to win. That scenario is all but impossible, so lets let him win Florida for purposes of this analysis. But don’t forget as we do that that if President Obama wins Florida, this is basically over.
If Gov. Romney wins Florida, there is no other scenario by which he can achieve 270 electoral votes w