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Subject:  Re: Funding Retirement Date:  10/11/2012  7:57 PM
Author:  joelcorley Number:  34466 of 36384


You wrote, Studying the SSA's actuarial tables is certainly interesting. I think the analysis has to be taken at least one stage deeper than the odds table presented in your post. That list is the odds at the time of birth. Not many of us have much reason to work from that basis, since we are all variously older than that.

Thanks for posting that. I was just playing catch up on this board and read Charlie's post and was thinking the exact same thing.

While the average life expectancy of a man is 75, I hope to retire between the ages 55 and 58. Assuming 58, my average life expectancy is already up to about 80.5. If you go to the first deviation, I'm looking at potentially surviving to 87 (29 years). To cover the second deviation, I need to plan to live to 95 or 96 (37 to 38 years).

I honestly wouldn't consider anything beyond the second deviation; but even that is a pretty daunting target full of uncertainty...

And ironically the later you plan to retire, the older you should expect to die. It's a real-life example of the Monty Hall Paradox! ;-)

- Joel
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