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|Subject: Re: Gold - Updated TA||Date: 10/22/2012 3:00 AM|
|Author: MDCigan||Number: 41172 of 41410|
We are at 50DMA, supposing if GLD & SLV didn't bounce off of this, where do you see the next support? 200 DMA?
Yeah, that would be a reasonable price level, I would also look at the 38.2 and 50% Fib retracement which is 1694 and 1662. The 50% retracement is actually right at the 200 DMA.
In the short-term, I am neutral here. Actually, when the futures opened today I covered my silver short at 31.89 after having shorted at 34 basically because it is sitting at the 38.2% retracement and the previous breakout level on 8/31. I've noticed over the years that breakouts often retrace to the breakout price and then halt there. That isn't to say it can't go lower, but continuing to hold a short-term short is no longer a compelling risk/reward. In contrast, as I pointed out earlier there were clear signs the short-term uptrend was running out of steam at 34-35 and that was a reasonable price to expect that to happen.
If you look at gold, the recent upmove failed exactly where you would have expected it to which was the previous double top at 1800 as the high of this move was 1798.1. I chose to short silver instead, but again that was a textbook entry price to short since there was existing resistance in place. So now you have a triple top at 1800 in place. That is actually informative. The more times something holds as resistance, when it finally breaks you know the move is for real. So if and when we finally break over 1800, that would be a great entry signal as that probably would be the beginning of the next big upleg.
But yeah, the 200 DMA would be a good entry point IMO. The script in 2009 was gold rallied all the way up to the previous resistance at 100 before pulling back to the 200 DMA at around 880-890 off the top of my head. So if you were looking to enter a long-term position, maybe you enter 1/2 at the 38.2% retracement and the other half at the 200 DMA.
If you recall earlier, I mentioned missing initial breakout, but maintaining that I would not chase it and simply wait. With patience, the short-term corrections almost always come.
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