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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/nov-2-2012-picks-30363358.aspx

Subject:  Nov 2 2012 Picks Date:  11/6/2012  7:59 AM
Author:  AllTooFoolish Number:  5931 of 6020

Appologies for the late post. I am one of the many that live in the path of Hurricane Sandy. 
Power was just restored to my home a couple days ago, so I am still cacthing up on things.

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Based on the latest results as of today’s data release, no companies would qualify as a Long candidate.

Although several stocks are significantly overvalued according to the BI valuation methods, none would qualify as a short candidate either.

Market Valuation: Data suggests the market remains slightly overvalued.
Downside -22%
Upside +16%

I am using the following TTD rules for Long position considerations:
1. Year-over-Year EPS growth must > 10%, which is the next 4Q / current quarter + previous 3 quarters earnings results
2. VL 3-5 Year price appreciation > average price appreciation of the market
3. When calculating ROE and BV figures, ignore years when are negative, but must have at least 7+ years of data to be 
   included in final consideration
4. Avoid erratic ROE ratios, that is where they are > 2std deviations = Curr ROE > (10 Year Avg + 2 * Std Dev)


Summary of Results												
											
	VL	        Current	Down	Up	%<10Y	EPS	Div    3-5Y L 3-5Y H VL 3-5Y   ROE	
Ticker	Date	        Price	Price	Price	Down	Delta   Yield   VL $	VL $	% Chg	<2STD	Name
CAT	24-Aug-12	84.25	81	144	4%	11%	2.5	140	210	109%	FALSE	Caterpillar Inc.
JNJ	24-Aug-12	70.9	64	81	11%	6%	3.4	80	100	26%	FALSE	Johnson & Johnson
MCD	31-Aug-12	86.71	64	91	37%	11%	3.5	110	130	37%	FALSE	McDonald's Corp.
CVX	7-Sep-12	111	87	124	29%	9%	3.2	130	160	30%	FALSE	Chevron Corp.
XOM	7-Sep-12	90.62	67	93	36%	7%	2.5	110	135	35%	FALSE	Exxon Mobil Corp.
BA	14-Sep-12	71.11	48	75	47%	0%	2.5	90	125	50%	FALSE	Boeing
TRV	14-Sep-12	71.56	45	66	61%	-9%	2.6	80	100	24%	FALSE	Travelers Cos.
T	21-Sep-12	34.63	27	40	27%	13%	5.2	40	50	30%	FALSE	AT&T Inc.
VZ	21-Sep-12	44.73	23	33	94%	12%	4.7	55	70	41%	FALSE	Verizon Communic.
CSCO	21-Sep-12	17.29	20	34	-15%	14%	3.3	30	40	118%	FALSE	Cisco Systems
HD	28-Sep-12	60.04	33	52	80%	15%	1.9	60	75	11%	FALSE	Home Depot
PG	28-Sep-12	69.44	47	61	47%	3%	3.2	90	110	42%	FALSE	Procter & Gambl