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|Subject: The next four years and 2016||Date: 11/7/2012 2:25 AM|
|Author: TheDope1||Number: 110049 of 155385|
The one lingering question that I had has always been this: What does the electorate really look like? Is it similar to the Obama ascendancy of 2008 or is there a mass of people sympathetic to the Tea Party as in 2010?
Well now we know. Obama got his 332 electoral votes and he appears to have built a coalition of the 50.1%.
This is now the America we live in: democrats are a structural majority. Say what you will about Romney being a liberal flip/flopping so and so, the reality of it all is that there are more of them than there are us.
So what are the next four years going to be like?
A word? Painful. I didn't listen to Obama's speech but I'm sure he offered up all the bromides about unity that he issued last time. Obama will have learned from his last four years: he won't say "I won" and that "elections have consequences" anymore. Now he'll have learned to say "I'm reaching out to the GOP" while screwing us all with as much unchecked liberalism as is humanly possible. And the GOP, now firmly branded as a broken party bitterly clinging to its racist past, will buckle.
What does that mean?
It means that if you make over $100k you can expect your taxes to skyrocket. It means that if you make over $100k and you have any stocks at all your cap gains taxes are going to blast upward. Bend over; here it comes.
There will be no closing of the deficit in real terms. Obama will jack taxes up to the point where he maybe knocks $3-400 billion off of his $1.3t deficits. He will then hail the resulting $1Trillion dollar deficit as a shining symbol of his leadership and the pat the Republicans on the head for coming around to their senses. Then he'll ask for more taxes.
Whither the economy? Kiss the coal industry good-bye. Even before the election the EPA was crafting regulations that would finish off the coal industry. Natural gas is next via fracking restrictions. After that it will be shale oil.
Not coincidentally, energy was leading the way in what little recovery was actually going on. The rug will be pullled.
So where's the growth going to come from? Obama has the bread and circuses thing down pat. He knows that if he can prop up the stock market long enough, he can ride through bad news. So expect zero interest rates for you and me for the near future. Expect the printing presses to run full speed from now on. That works great until the music stops...
What else does his win mean?
It also means that Obamacare is here to stay. Forever. The bureaucracy will kick in starting in 1 year. The taxes kick in starting in January. It doesn't stop there. Do you have an HSA and like it? TFB. It's off to the state exchanges for you as that will be another deal the GOP will be forced to swallow.
This election was just won by a guy who campaigned on Big Bird, Sandra Fluke's supply of birth control pills, binders full of women, and raaaacism. In other words, we have just seen the triumph of the low information voter.
That brings me to 2016. Many of you are already thinking what if we had just nominated someone who was more conservative? No offense - please, no offense to all my friends - but that won't fly in 2016.
The electorate we have now is different. Generation Y isn't about service. It's not about competing effectively and winning. It's about what can be done for them to make their lives easier. That's the formula under which Obama governs and it's the formula by which all future elections will now be run with: Who can bribe the most to win?
The GOP is in the position of having to tell people to work harder and take responsibility for their own lives. The democrats are in the position of telling people that it's all okay, somehow the money will be found to care for you.
For a population that votes not based on America's founding principles but on how much the government can provide, which do you think it will choose? A Ryan/Anybody or Rubio/Anybody ticket won't change that fundamental incentive dynamic.
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