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Stocks E / Ebix Inc.
|Subject: Re: Buys TriSystems, immediately accretive||Date: 11/12/2012 9:43 AM|
|Author: leaderoftheback||Number: 202 of 307|
Thanks for that reply, Cog.
I think I'm not clear on my "humble origins" point; I don't mean where he comes from, I mean his business experience. He has training as an engineer. What sort of training is that for managing the intricacies of accumulating and integrating the people and financials of different companies in a business that he has no background in? It's not like he was a frustrated insurance underwriter constantly struggling with his available tools. He's obviously an opportunist, which I find totally acceptable and endearing. This is the best reason to buy EBIX.
Ultimately, the success of EBIX hinges upon it's management, which is always true in the long run, but especially true of consolidators. What I can't discern is just how deeply MF can "look into the eyes" of company managers. There has been at least one (face to face?) discussion between MF and Raina, which I find comforting. It's part of the reason I bought in (twice) in the face of accusations of anonymous critics. But the road to perdition is littered with the charred broken bones of consolidators who failed to manage...I submit it is the vastly more common scenario. Serial acquirers often languish until they begin to divest. Of the 3 you cite, only Diageo is outperforming the S&P. The serial acquirers I own; AIG, CHK, DF, MUR have all performed better as serial divestors (AIG and DF are acquisitions since they began divestiture). I have recently owned more than one that took a profitable business to heck through aquisition of "immediately earnings accretive" businesses, including WPCS and DRIV...both of which have seemingly sensible and capable management.
Lastly, I do not claim that EBIX is a fraud. I'm inclined to take the MFs word for it, but nobody is right all of the time.
Takeaway: For the next little while, I think there has to be a brake on share price appreciation (so long as questions persist). Time may well heal it, but the risk/reward dynamic is pretty clear at this moment. If EBIX some day reflects its full value, I will have more than one opportunity to repurchase shares at the $18.65 that I sold at. I will continue to watch. If no shoe drops in six months, EBIX may be a very smart buy.
I'm rooting for all the longs on EBIX, and I really do hope to own EBIX in the future.
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