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Investment Analysis Clubs / Macro Economic Trends and Risks
|Subject: Re: The Fiscal Cliff-Solving the wrong problem||Date: 11/15/2012 9:58 AM|
|Author: jgc123||Number: 408588 of 455521|
The CBO studies projected the Bush deficits more accurately than any other site I could find 12 years ago. And they have regularly forecast budget deficits and surpluses more accurately than other sources over the last 30 years.
They do that despite the fact that they also tend to underproject the size of the deficits and overproject the size of the surpluses - my guess is that they do bow to unseen political pressure.
For example, Reagan, who got almost exactly the budget he asked for, which failed to foresee deficits based upon unduly rosy revenue projections (some of which came from the CBO), and then he blamed Congressional Democrats for those deficits instead of the rosy projections.
However, until I find a more accurate and objective source, I will continue to read the CBO budgets with full knowledge that they appear to be too rosy with their prognostications.
If other sources can produce more reliable prognostications, and not just hindsight cut and paste attacks, I will look at them. I personally will not abandon a generally reliable but imperfect source in favor of MUS.
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