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Investment Analysis Clubs / Macro Economic Trends and Risks


Subject:  China's Black Hole of Corporate Debt Date:  11/19/2012  9:19 PM
Author:  WatchingTheHerd Number:  408996 of 502897

If you're trying to look at macro trends to improve micro investment decisions, it's crucial to avoid "momentum thinking" -- extrapolating current interpretations of current trends out to infinity and concluding the end of the world is near. A few years back, I posted a comment about how China was becoming the world's critical patient -- the canary in the world economy's coal mine, the patient whose sniffles soon become everyone else's flu epidemic. Over the past 15-20 years, US manufa