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Investing/Strategies / Falling Knives
|Subject: Re: OT: Which FKA Would You Choose?||Date: 11/20/2012 6:12 PM|
|Author: DrtThrwingMonkey||Number: 12916 of 16338|
HPQ is very cheap, and has a mix of businesses some of which are very valuable and probably sustainable.
They won't out-IBM IBM, but they might under-IBM them and still be profitable.
Dell has had very nasty erosion in their return on assets, and I don't think they're a big winner in future as in the past. Tough business to be in.
RIMM I think is headed the irrelevance way of Nokia...strong niche now gone, nothing else.
Another day, another reason to see why HP is so cheap! With today's Autonomy flameout, both companies are down about 60% from this time last year, with HPQ actually the slightly worse performer than RIMM.
I can sympathize with HP shareholders since I have done equally awfully with RIM, and I compare them to two burning houses:
HP has a good fire going, but lots of the house still intact. Unfortunately, the firefighters (the board of directors) are throwing gas on the fire to try to put it out.
RIM has a raging fire, and the fire is so bad, even the best efforts of its competent board are unlikely to succeed in putting it out. There might be something valuable in the basement when the house has burned to the ground, but we're not sure.
So if you place your bet on HP, you are thinking that the arsonists in firefighters' clothing might get thrown out and some real firefighter put in their place. If you bet on RIM, you are thinking that there might still be something left of the building by the time the fire is finally out, either a viable part of the house, or the IP treasure in the basement.
It's pretty hard to judge the odds on these two awful performers, but I am still more comfortable with the bet on putting out the fire rather than the bet on putting out the gas-throwing firefighters.
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