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Investing/Strategies / Falling Knives
|Subject: Re: OT: Which FKA Would You Choose?||Date: 11/22/2012 6:03 PM|
|Author: DrtThrwingMonkey||Number: 12929 of 13776|
There are zillions of ways to slice the option approach, but they all
first come down to whether or not you want to put money at risk for long exposure.
It's not the best investment out there, for sure.
It's so cheap I'm happy at the token position size, because I believe
that a portfolio of a large number of similar small positions would
do very well on average through time if they're uncorrelated.
Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.
My thinking is just that I don't really have any faith in current management, nor much hope that current management will become former management. So I don't like the upside of a straight share investment very much. But awful as they are, I don't think that even they will succeed in killing the company. It is still profitable, it has real assets, and real profits, as soon as they stop shooting themselves in the foot, which they might well eventually do, or someone might force them to. If that's right, then the shares won't go down very much more.
So I guess I am convincing myself to sell puts, or buy shares and sell covered calls, if the price is ok.
For instance, if I wouldn't want to buy the shares at prices much higher than today's, say $15, but don't think the shares are likely to drop much further, then I could buy shares for $12, and sell (covered) $15 calls for $1.75, so I have $10.25 at risk. If the shares go down to $6, then I will have been wrong, but I lose $4.25 instead of $6 with a straight share purchase, return of -$4.25/$10.25=-41%. If the shares stagnate as I think they will, then I have a 2-year non-annualized return of $1.75/$10.25=17%. If the shares go up to $20, then I will have been overly pessimistic, but I will still make the first $3 on the shares, plus my $1.75 premium, so $4.75/$10.25=46%.
But just going on intuition, the $1.75 premium seems a bit low for losing the upside beyond $15, and I might as well keep things simple and just buy a few shares, strictly gambling of course, with a high probability of loss but a pretty reasonable expected return.
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