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|Subject: Grantham letter and other reading||Date: 11/26/2012 12:53 PM|
|Author: grier22||Number: 44581 of 44592|
Grantham's letter is posted at GMO.com,
with his portfolio manager Ben Inker doing the investment outlook.
BTW, there's a piece in Forbes that takes issue with Grantham's resource scarcity research. The discussion with readers that follows the article may be of interest, too.
Grantham deeply believes his firm's work on the coming scarcity and a paradigm shift-- he's put 50% of his foundations' millions into resources to date (but foundations have longer time horizons than we mortals do).
FT.com did a piece on demographics this weekend as a main driver of stockmarket performance. It covers the same ground as recent work by Yale finance dept and SF Fed I've mentioned before here.
The interesting bit was a graphic page with some charts that again seem to point to 2023 or so as the next bottom in PEs for UK and US. In the 70's market PRICE bottomed 8 years before PE if we count back from 2023 you get 2015 or so. Perhaps this is particular lead time is irrelevant, but the demographic turn seems important. Grantham has advised keeping your head down until a crisis gives us an undervalued market or until 2015 (the third year in the presidential cycle), whichever comes first.
Finally, Black Swan author Nassim Taleb did an article in the WSJ on his forthcoming book with rules for dealing with 'antifragility' which applies to the markets and other stuff.
Rule 1: Think of the economy as being more like a cat than a washing machine.
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