The Motley Fool Discussion Boards
Investing/Strategies / New Paradigm Investing
|Subject: Re: I love this board||Date: 12/8/2012 9:09 PM|
|Author: rjf53||Number: 65532 of 78231|
We've underperformed the market over the last 3 years with NPI picks, and only 6 of us have had a market beating stock more than once (ejo, 11x, denny, and tamhas in separate years, preller & ukgold both had 2 picks within the same year).
So while its good to get the chatter going, were not as great as we all think unfortunately.
While I believe you are correct with your final conclusion, the data that led you to it still falls under the statistic portion of "lies, damn lies and statistics” IMO.
For starters you are comparing different dates, so using this year as an example Denny opened the contest to picks on 12-14-2011 and many of us picked our stocks around then, but he used Jan 1 as a starting date which in some cases made a heck of a lot of difference. Using one of my picks as an example GUKYF (Denny recorded it as the ADR GFKSY but when I pointed it out he refused to change it.) On the date I picked it (Dec 15) it was at $2.59 whereas on Jan 1 it was at 3.00 which made quite a difference.
The second point I would make is that a heck of a lot of the picks from various posters, from this year at least, had some really impressive moves before they ultimately fell back to earth. Using GUKYF again as an example it hit a high of $6.76 in Feb which if you measure it from my pick date comes to a 167% return in only two months. Although I can’t speak for anyone but myself, I suspect that many if not most of us would strongly consider what I call de-risking the position i.e. take some money off the table after a run like that. (Unfortunately, although I did manage to de-risk my position and lowered my cost basis by 25%ish in GUKYF in the grand scheme of things I pretty much botched the opportunity because I allowed greed disguised as a rational reason for holding on to it all to cloud my judgment.)
Finally and this is only my impression, but because it’s only a game, it appears to me that some people go for the moon shot and may not have the conviction to actually invest in them or make them a full position (whatever that is) within their portfolio. The idea that someone in a game might take a