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|Subject: Lock And Load||Date: 12/13/2012 9:57 AM|
|Author: 2828||Number: 659830 of 857791|
Negative demographic trends also test the system. While between 80 and 90 million people will be set to draw old age benefits in the 2020s. The current workforce (people able to work) stands at 158 million, and perhaps only 120 million of them have full time jobs.
“Even if we assume an expanding economy and a declining unemployment rate, the nation will eventually reach a point where there are less than two people working to support each beneficiary,” Piereson said, explaining that 150 million people will be working to support 80 million. “That’s not a good situation.”
The bad news doesn’t stop there. In order to meet America’s economic needs, Pierson said, the U.S.’s gross domestic product (GDP) needs to grow at least by about 2 percent per year, so long as spending does not increase. If the economy grows even faster, we can cut the deficit and debt. However, given the decades of decline in the U.S. GDP, that is not likely to occur.
Increasing federal spending, an aging population, and lagging economic growth will drive up deficits further, no matter how well Republicans and Democrats deal with the impending “fiscal cliff.”
These problems are likely to hit Millenials hardest, since those currently entering their twenties will drive the workforce in the next two decades.
As in the 1860s, something’s got to give in America. Politicians did not face the problem of slavery head on in the 1840s and 1850s, and it led to a civil war. America may need another cataclysmic event – like the Election of 1800, the Civil War, or the Stock Market Crash of 1929 – to force the people to deal with these problems, he argued.
The “fiscal cliff” may just the beginning of the U.S.’s fall from grace.
A grim tale.
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