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Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway


Subject:  Re: Updated Tilson Presentation Date:  12/13/2012  11:26 AM
Author:  mungofitch Number:  196896 of 235717

Tilson's IV estimate is $180K

Seems a little more reasonable than his figures usually do.

For earnings, he pencils in $8000 pretax plus $600 cyclically adjusted underwriting profit, total $8600.
FWIW that's 13.5% higher than my $7236 pretax plus $344, total $7580.
He used a figure for underwriting profit that implies -1.39% cost of float versus my -0.8%.
The derivation of my figures is described here
Using my earnings and his multiples you get a value of $173,473.

He actually uses a higher earnings multiple than mine: 8x pretax earnings rather than the 9x I use.
That's extremely conservative on his part.
A P/E of 12.3x is pretty darned good for that set of businesses.

On the other hand, mine is more conservative mainly due to placing a 20%
haircut on investments per share due to the perpetual drag of cash.

It's pretty much impossible these days to come up with a value figure under $150,000.

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